Rozhovor s Jakubem Seidlerem, členem bankovní rady ČNB
Peter Laca a Kryštof Chamonikolas (Bloomberg 18. 3. 2025)
Člen bankovní rady Jakub Seidler by na nejbližším zasedání ponechal úrokové sazby beze změny kvůli přetrvávajícím inflačním rizikům. V rozhovoru pro agenturu Bloomberg zdůraznil potřebu opatrného přístupu vzhledem k nejistému globálnímu vývoji, obchodním konfliktům a přetrvávajícím tlakům na růst cen v sektoru služeb. Podle něj by bylo vhodné v současné situaci zachovat mírně restriktivní měnovou politiku, dokud zmíněná rizika neodezní.
Rozhovor (anglicky)
Czech central banker Jakub Seidler said he would prefer holding borrowing costs steady next week as domestic inflation pressures persist and global risks cloud the policy outlook. After rapid interest rate cuts last year, policymakers in Prague have switched to a stop-and-go mode at the past two meetings to assess conflicting economic forces. Price pressures in the services sector remain stubborn, while export-oriented industries suffer from weakness in their main market, Germany.
“The balance of risks in my view still shows that interest rates should stay where they are, which means maintaining some degree of policy restriction,” Seidler said in his first interview since joining the monetary policy panel three months ago. He voted with the majority to halt rate cuts in December, and then backed a unanimous decision to lower the benchmark by another quarter of a percentage point to 3.75% last month.
Financial markets have been roiled by trade tensions as US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs upend the world economy. Combined with plans for more defense spending in Europe, they are among main factors complicating monetary policy decisions. “A cautious stance is legitimate in periods of high uncertainty,” Seidler said. “Several other central banks have taken a similar approach, because the outlook in general is much more clouded than it used to be before the coronavirus pandemic.”
Market prices indicate about 50 basis point of rate cuts within the next 12 months, which Seidler considered “relatively fair.”
While Czech consumer price growth has stabilized near the 2% target, the structure is still a concern. Core inflation, adjusted for volatile food and energy items, showed a slight accelerating trend in seasonally-adjusted, month-on-month terms in the past three months and a similar trend is visible inside the services segment, he said.
The cost of services is still catching up with the rapid growth in prices of goods from the past few years and they are also more sensitive to rising salaries, according to the 41- year-old former commercial bank economist. Household consumption remained below levels from before the pandemic in the fourth quarter, but it’s gaining strength thanks to the renewed increase in real wages.
While the central bank would normally look past volatile food prices for policy consideration, the recent period of double-digit inflation has made Czech consumers more sensitive to food costs and they have a major impact on inflation expectations, Seidler said.
A “detailed analysis” is needed to gauge the impact of European plans for more defense and infrastructure spending, but they cast doubt on assumptions about anti-inflationary effects from abroad, especially if a large fiscal boost is financed by new debt, according to Seidler.
“The U-turn in thinking about defense spending is a major structural change for the German economy,” he said. “It underlines the high degree of uncertainty for monetary policy.” Seidler said he aimed to make sure that the objective of price stability was fulfilled, which is one of the reasons why he favors a cautious approach to further rate cuts.
A central bank analysis has shown that the economic cost of keeping monetary policy restrictive for longer than necessary, known as a “policy error,” would be comparatively small, Seidler said. Czech rates are already “relatively close” to the so- called neutral level and a further fast decline wouldn’t deliver a major boost to growth.
Seidler, who holds a PhD in economics, said his views are data-driven and that he wouldn’t describe himself either as monetary hawk or a dove.
“I’d like to remain flexible,” he said. “I’m more cautious at the moment, for several reasons. But if these reasons disappear, let’s say in half a year, I can change my view and maybe argue in favor of a faster decline in rates.”
