Úvahy guvernéra nad bitcoinem – testovací portfolio v devizových rezervách ČNB

Guvernér České národní banky Aleš Michl navrhl dne 30. ledna 2025 bankovní radě ČNB provedení analýzy na vytvoření testovacího portfolia bitcoinu. Tento krok je motivován snahou poznat a vyzkoušet si toto alternativní a vysoce rizikové aktivum. Michl zdůrazňuje potřebu přizpůsobit se měnícím se podmínkám na finančních trzích a prozkoumat nové možnosti pro správu devizových rezerv centrální banky. Guvernér uvedl, že má bitcoin významnou volatilitu, jeho hodnota může nabýt v budoucnosti obou extrémů, nuly i výrazné výšky. Zároveň připomněl, že se jedná o vysoce rizikové aktivum pro profesionální investory, kteří si jsou vědomi rizik. Bankovní rada schválila návrh na provedení analýzy, jejímž cílem je posoudit možnost investic do dalších tříd aktiv. Na základě výsledků analýzy následně bankovní rada rozhodne o dalším postupu. Do té doby žádné změny v této oblasti nenastanou. Je důležité zdůraznit, že se jedná o počáteční fázi analýzy a diskuse, přičemž konečné rozhodnutí bude záviset na výsledcích této analýzy a následném rozhodnutí bankovní rady.

Komentář guvernéra Aleše Michla na síti X ze dne 29. ledna 2025

Komentář guvernéra Aleše Michla na síti X ze dne 29. ledna 2025

Komentář guvernéra Aleše Michla na síti X ze dne 30. ledna 2025

Komentář guvernéra Aleše Michla na síti X ze dne 30. ledna 2025


Rozhovor s Alešem Michlem, guvernérem ČNB
Raphael Minder (Financial Times 29. 1. 2025)

Guvernér Aleš Michl v rozhovoru pro Financial Times uvedl, že bankovní radě navrhne vypracování analýzy možnosti nakupovat bitcoin jako nástroj další diverzifikace portfolia devizových rezerv. Dále také hovořil o měnové politice, koruně a případném přijetí eura.

Plné znění rozhovoru (v angličtině)

The head of the Czech National Bank wants to plough billions of euros’ worth of the country’s reserves into bitcoin, a groundbreaking move that could make it the first western central bank known to hold crypto assets.

Governor Aleš Michl told the Financial Times that he would present a plan to the board to invest in bitcoin as a way of diversifying the CNB’s reserves at a meeting on Thursday. Should the board approve this, then the CNB could eventually hold as much as 5 per cent of its €140bn of reserves in bitcoin, he said.

While acknowledging bitcoin’s “extreme volatility” and limited record, Michl highlighted wider investor interest in bitcoin since BlackRock and other companies last year launched bitcoin exchange traded funds.

He also pointed to US President Donald Trump’s pledges on deregulation and the growing influence of cryptocurrency executives over his administration. In an executive order last week, Trump set up a working group to evaluate the creation of a national digital asset stockpile.

“For the diversification of our assets, bitcoin seems good,” Michl said in an interview. “Those [Trump] guys can now kind of create some bubble for bitcoin, but I think the trend would be an increase without those guys as well, because it’s an alternative [investment] for more people.”

Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell confirmed in December that the US central bank did not hold any bitcoin as it was not in the list of assets Congress allowed it to purchase. “We are not looking for a law change at the Fed,” Powell said at the time.

Central banks have traditionally parked their reserves in conservative assets such as US Treasuries and other forms of highly rated bonds. Some have holdings in equities, but almost none have publicly ventured into crypto.

Michl said he had “a totally different philosophy” about bitcoin to his counterparts.

“Of course, if you compare my position with other bankers, then I’m the one entering the jungle, or the pioneer,” Michl said. “I used to run an investment fund, so I’m a typical investment banker I would say, I like profitability.”

Among central bankers to have warned about the risks of investing in cryptocurrencies is the governor of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, who this month compared bitcoin to “digital tulips”, a reference to a 17th century speculative bubble and then collapse in the price of the bulbs.

European Central Bank officials wrote last year that “the fair value of bitcoin is still zero”, adding that “bitcoin is not suitable as means of payment or as an investment”, while former ECB official Benoît Couré has previously referred to bitcoin as the “evil spawn of the financial crisis”.

El Salvador has been a rare, prominent backer of crypto, making it legal tender in 2021. The government holds 6,048 bitcoins in its treasury, worth about $621mn, according to its National Bitcoin Office. But the Central American country scaled back its crypto ambitions late last year to reach a funding deal with the IMF.

In addition, some central banks are piloting digital currencies, partly in response to the threat posed by cryptocurrencies.

Michl said more central banks could follow his lead within the next five years, just as several funds and commercial banks had recently changed tack and added crypto to their portfolios. Some pension funds have begun investing in crypto.

However, he added that the investment could prove to be worthless.

“It’s possible to have a big range of outcomes, that bitcoin will have a value of zero or an absolutely fantastic value … but in our history we have also had some stocks like Enron or the payment company Wirecard, so we have some experience with bad investments, so, yes, I’m ready [for a possible Bitcoin collapse],” he said.

“But I’m saying that my goal is to diversify the portfolio, so if bitcoin is good [for that], then let’s have it.”

If the Czech bank had held 5 per cent of its foreign reserves in bitcoin over the past decade, its annual returns would have increased by 3.5 percentage points, but would have also doubled in volatility, according to the CNB.

Michl said any large investment by a central bank in a bitcoin ETF could in itself impact the coin’s price. “Five per cent [of our assets] is a lot of money, even for the bitcoin market,” he said. 

The central bank’s €140bn in foreign exchange reserves are equivalent to about 45 per cent of the Czech Republic’s GDP. The CNB already stands out among central banks because 22 per cent of its portfolio is in equities, and Michl wants half of that to be in US shares in about three years’ time, up from 30 per cent currently.

“We are buying gradually and in very small steps because the [US stock] prices are the highest in history,” he said.

The Czech Republic is one of seven EU countries to have stayed outside the Eurozone, but in his New Year’s address to the nation President Petr Pavel revived the debate by urging a switch to the euro. He argued that “it would certainly promote our future prosperity if [salaries] were to be paid in the European currency, just as they are in Germany.”

However, Michl dismissed this idea, saying there was not enough price convergence or public support to abandon the Czech koruna in the foreseeable future.

“Our president is a military strategist and I’m an economist,” Michl said, referring to Pavel’s background as a Nato commander. “If you have political problems, it can be good to have the euro, but being independent and having an independent voice on monetary policy seems good for us to fight inflation.”

He added it was “very likely” that his bank would cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week from 4 per cent, resuming a cycle of rate cuts that began in December 2023.


Bitcoin Musings Draw Scrutiny Over Czech Central Bank Governor

Rozhovor s Alešem Michlem, guvernérem ČNB
Peter Laca a Kryštof Chamonikolas (Bloomberg 6. 2. 2025)

The Czech central bank governor’s bid to invest a portion of the country’s reserves into Bitcoin managed to draw more attention to the central European nation’s monetary policy than any of his predecessors. 

The proposal last month by Ales Michl spurred instant buzz in a cryptocurrency community eager for validation. The reaction among decision makers was different. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde diplomatically dismissed the idea. But Michl, a one-time commercial-banking strategist who co-founded an algorithmic trading fund, has given little indication that he’s been moved by the disapproval. On the contrary, he framed the reaction as a debate on how central bank planners should adapt to sweeping technological change.

The world, the economy and people’s behaviour are constantly changing and I think we should be prepared to reflect that in how we think and what we do,” Michl said in an interview on Wednesday in Prague. “Part of that is having discussions about issues that may seem outside the conventional idea of the role of central banks.”

The 47-year-old governor of the Czech National Bank has had a penchant for courting controversy since he took the top job two and a half years ago. One of his first moves was to halt interest-rate hikes in the midst of the most severe inflation crisis in decades. The bet, which went against the suggestions of the bank’s own forecast, eventually worked out. Others have also raised eyebrows, including a bid to make the central bank profitable by investing more in equities — and an ambition to boost the institution’s gold stockpile.

Possible Reserve Asset

But the Bitcoin foray may have pushed the boundaries. Lagarde, speaking after the ECB’s Jan. 30 rate-decision meeting, signaled that Michl’s crypto musings had been addressed — and discussed with Prague, even though the Czech Republic isn’t a member of the euro area.

Frankfurt’s view was that “reserves have to be liquid, that reserves have to be secure, that they have to be safe, that they should not be plagued by the suspicion of money laundering or other criminal activities,” Lagarde said, laying out the consensus of euro-area policymakers.

The investment community was also thrown off balance. Monetary policy authorities have to focus on ensuring monetary and financial stability, said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in London — not on maximizing profits. “Michl is mixing up the role of a central banker with that of a portfolio manager,” Haddad said. “Bitcoin is too volatile to be considered as a store of value. He should stick with gold.”

Small Exposure

There are indications that Michl’s initial suggestion of investing as much as 5% of reserves in Bitcoin, floated in an interview with the Financial Times, may come up short. The governor is prepared to accept the outcome of a central bank analysis of the option, which make take months to conduct, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Even if the study, commissioned by the board last week, opens a path for buying the cryptocurrency, Michl realistically envisages exposure that would represent less than a percent of total reserves, the people said.

As much as Michl has sought to separate himself from the starchy pack of central bank peers, he’s insisted that his main mission is to keep inflation under control. He and the CNB board are expected to resume interest-rate cuts at a meeting on Thursday after bringing a year-long easing campaign to a halt in December amid lingering price concerns.

Michl said the reasoning behind the initiative is to explore the risks and benefits of holding Bitcoin as the central bank seeks to boost profitability and diversify assets. Another motivation is to gain first-hand experience to identify regulatory pitfalls around digital assets as they become more common.

Michl also pointed to his bid to increase stock holdings, saying the notion was unthinkable two decades ago. The Czech institution only began to invest in equities in 2008 — and now aims to boost the level of stocks to 30% of reserves. The governor said he’s “no crypto-fanatic” — and has no such personal investments. But his embrace has already given him credentials among digital-asset backers. He’s received a VIP invitation to the largest Bitcoin conference, whose past speakers included President Donald Trump.

Michl has referred to Trump’s pledges to ease regulation of the digital-asset industry as an inspiration for his own thinking. But he doesn’t intend to attend the convention in Las Vegas in May, the people familiar with his plans said.