CNB Research News

How Bad Are Trade Wars? Evidence from Tariffs

This paper uses more than 1,600 estimates from 71 studies to investigate the relation between international trade flows and tariffs. The results suggest that the empirical literature suffers from the presence of publication bias, which has exaggerated the effect (the true elasticity is closer to zero).

Deriving Equity Risk Premium Using Dividend Futures

This paper presents a simple framework for the decomposition of stock prices employing the dividend discount model and dividend futures. The use of dividend futures forms the main contribution of the paper as it allows for the calculation of the implied equity risk premium on daily basis.

Outlooks in the Pandemic Year 2020 – Where Are World Economies Heading?

This article takes a look back at the outlooks presented in GEO last year and assesses how institutions succeeded in forecasting the pandemic. In addition to the traditional assessment, the article analyses the long-term forecasts of GDP growth and inflation in the world's major economies.

Assessment of the Impacts of the Pandemic on the World's Major Economies: A Crisis of Supply or Demand?

This article analyses shocks caused by the coronavirus pandemic and also compares the pandemic economic crisis to the global financial and economic crisis in the previous decade for the world’s four largest advanced economies – the USA, the euro area, Japan and the United Kingdom. Based on empirical and model analysis, the article shows that the sharp economic downturn observed in 2020 mostly bears the hallmarks of a negative supply shock and is therefore stagflationary in nature.

On a Knife Edge: Brexit and Financial Services

This article focuses on financial services, which were omitted from the Brexit agreement, and the future of their cross-border provision. Services in general are very important for the UK, and the question is whether the City of London will keep its leading global position or whether it will gradually be replaced by another centre in the European Union.

Macroprudential Tools for the Insurance Sector

This article builds on the proposed changes to Solvency II in the macroprudential policy area currently under consideration at European Commission level. In its main part, the article suggests a possible design for the macroprudential policy framework in insurance.

Inflation Targets of Selected Central Banks

Most advanced country central banks operate under inflation targeting (IT). Its specific formal status and evolution depend on each country’s economic conditions and historical experience. This article focuses on central banks’ inflation targets – their legal definition, their numerical values and their formulation in terms of point values or ranges – and on the inflation indices they monitor.