CNB Research News

When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis

IMF Economic Review, 2023, Vol. 71, pp. 538–573

Has Monetary Policy Fueled the Rise in Shadow Banking?

Economic Modelling, 2023, Vol. 123, pp. 1–18

Cyclical Investment Behavior of Investment Funds: Its Heterogeneity and Drivers

This study explores the effect of security returns on subsequent sales and purchases of securities by investment funds, and examines the potential of fund-related characteristics to amplify the elevated and procyclical sales of under-performing securities by funds. The study finds significant variations in investment behavior across different asset classes using unique data on trades by retail funds and non-retail hedge funds. The study then demonstrates how the financial fragility of funds increases their sensitivity to decreasing security returns, leading to increased sales of under-performing securities by funds.

What Do Economists Think About the Green Transition? Exploring the Impact of Environmental Awareness

We surveyed economics and finance professionals on the transition to a low-carbon economy, assessing risks, opportunities, and stakeholder responsibilities. The findings reveal that the respondents view the transition as an opportunity for the financial sector, with a modest increase in banking risks. Most respondents agreed that governments hold primary responsibility for climate mitigation policies, with a carbon tax as the favoured solution. Notably, opinions differ based on environmental awareness and professional roles, with environmentally conscious individuals expressing more optimism.

Cross-Border Payments at a Crossroads Between SWIFT and DLT

This article examines the evolving applications of DLT (decentralised ledger technologies) in international payments. It also discusses the reaction of traditional finance to the use of blockchain in cross-border transactions.

The European Natural Gas Market During the Energy Crisis

This article summarises the developments on the natural gas market over the last two years and states that EU countries got through the 2022/23 winter without major problems thanks to massive savings in consumption and good weather. In the absence of supplies from Russia, however, the European market will remain tight in the years ahead.

The Inverted Yield Curve: Economic Recession on the Horizon

This article aims to identify the phases of the business cycle in the USA using the slope of the yield curve and the level of implied stock market volatility. It also attempts to estimate the timing of the next economic recession in the USA, which would have a major impact on the global economy as well.

Is it Enough to Follow the Money? External Cash Flows and the Exchange Rate

This article examines the influence of external economic imbalances on exchange rate movements and constructs for this purpose an indicator of the external monetary flows based on the "monetary presentation of the balance of payments". This is a wider concept than the current account balance, which enables more precise conclusions regarding excess supply and demand for foreign exchange, and therefore expected pressure on the exchange rate. The use of this indicator is illustrated on Czech data.

Debt Capital Flows from and into the Czech Republic in the Turbulent Year of 2022

The year 2022 was a year of significant economic and, primarily, geopolitical events. These events could potentially have a significant impact on debt capital flows from and into the Czech Republic. This article focuses on what changes actually occurred in 2022 and how they affected the balance of payments.

Nowcasting of Tourism Using Text Mining

This article presents a way, how to use text mining for nowcasting tourism receipts and expenditures in the balance of payments statistics. Based on a subsequent econometric analysis, the article concludes that the use of the relevant text information available on the internet without a time delay is a promising approach to form the evidence about current (but as-yet unobserved) trends in tourism and improve prediction of this item in the balance of payments nowcast.

Monetary Policy Reviews in the Last Year

Assessing the functioning of the monetary policy regime and its parameters is an essential element of monetary policy-making. Some central banks do so on an ongoing basis, while others carry out formalised monetary policy reviews. This article discusses monetary policy reviews, focusing on those conducted over the past year or currently underway at Australia's RBA, New Zealand's RBNZ, Japan's BoJ and the UK's BoE.