Tomáš Adam, Aleš Michl, Michal Škoda
This paper extends the analysis of the Czech National Bank’s foreign exchange reserves portfolio in Adam, Michl, and Škoda (2023) using new data and addresses two developments: the CNB's ongoing gold accumulation toward a 100-ton target (67.2 tons held as of September 2025), and a hypothetical inclusion of bitcoin. The analysis is based on the CNB portfolio as of September 30, 2025, and covers two time horizons (2010–2025 and 2020–2025) in both reserve currencies and Czech koruna. On gold, we find that accumulating toward the 100-ton target represents a modest adjustment that leaves the portfolio's risk-return profile broadly unchanged. On bitcoin, historical data suggest it is a powerful driver of returns achievable with a small allocation; however, bitcoin's short history and unstable financial characteristics limit the reliability of these findings. Given these uncertainties, the CNB's Bank Board decided not to invest its FX reserves in bitcoin at this time, while commissioning a small pilot portfolio of digital assets to build institutional expertise.
JEL kódy: E44, E58, F31, G11
Klíčová slova: Central bank finances, foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange reserve management, portfolio choice
Vydáno: únor 2026
Ke stažení: RPN No. 1/2026 (pdf, 2,7 MB)