CNB Research Open Day 2023

Monday, May 15, 2023
Czech National Bank’s Congress Centre (The Commodity Exchange)
Senovážné nám. 30, Prague 1

To mark the CNB's 30th anniversary, the CNB Research Open Day will present a summary of the organization's research over the past few years and discuss the evolution of the role of research at the CNB.

Registration closed.
The conference is open to registered participants only.

Programme

Monday, May 15, 2023
All times are in Central European Summer Time.

08.30 Registration & Morning Coffee
09.00 Opening Remarks
Jan Brůha, Director of Economic Research Division, Monetary Department, CNB
Presentation (pdf, 243 kB)
09.15 Keynote Speech. Chair: Jan Brůha, CNB
Simona Malovaná, Director of Financial Research Division, Financial Stability Department, CNB
Research is fundamental to what any central bank does as it provides a crucial analytical framework for guiding policymakers' decisions. At the Czech National Bank, all three key policy areas – monetary, macroprudential, and microprudential – are under one roof. This keynote speech will provide an overview of the changes that research at the Czech National Bank has undergone over the last twenty years and its impact on decision-making in these policy areas. The speaker will also address the current and upcoming challenges faced by central bank researchers and highlight the critical new directions that central bank research is likely to take in the future.
Presentation (pdf, 686 kB)
10.00 Q&A
10.15 Break

Session 1. Financial Stability. Chair: Jan Janků, CNB

10.45 Macroprudential Policy and the Research-Paved Way to Financial Stability
 Martin Hodula, Senior Researcher, Financial Stability Department, CNB
This presentation explores the role of macroprudential policy in promoting financial stability. The speaker will summarize insights from research conducted by CNB staff that examines various aspects of macroprudential policy and its impact on the financial sector. The presentation will focus gradually on the interoperability of macroprudential policy, its benefits and potential costs along the way. This talk aims to highlight the role of economic policy research in providing policymakers with useful information for the setting and functioning of macroprudential policy tools.
Presentation (pdf, 1.3 MB)
11.30 Meta-Analysis in Financial Stability Topics. What We Know and What We Have Learned. (pdf, 1 MB)
Josef Bajzík, Researcher, Financial Stability Department, CNB
In this presentation, the speaker will discuss the use of meta-analysis in the financial stability research of the CNB. In recent years, meta-analysis has become increasingly more popular in economic and financial research, underlying its benefits in comprehensively summarizing existing knowledge on important economic issues. Research at the CNB took a leap in this direction as well, exploring the effect of macroprudential policy tools, the implications of monetary policy for credit and house prices, and the link between business and financial cycles.
Presentation (pdf, 1 MB)
12.15 Lunch

Session 2. Monetary Policy. Chair: Volha Audzei, CNB

13.45 The History of the CNB Core Macroeconomic Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis
 František Brázdik, Head of  Medium-Term Forecasting and Modelling Unit, Macroeconomic Forecasting Division, Monetary Department, CNB
In this lecture, we overview the history of the main CNB core macroeconomic models used for forecasting and policy analysis. The semi-structural QPM was the first core model of the CNB’s forecasting and policy analysis system. After several modifications, the QPM was replaced in 2008 by a full-fledged DSGE model called g3. The g3 model was recently updated to the g3+ model. This update delivers important extensions such as non-optimizing agents and limited information. The structural nature of the CNB’s core models enables the consistent implementation of expert judgements, policy experiments, and even the implementation of non-standard policies into our framework. 
Presentation (pdf, 3.8 MB)
14.30 Labor Market and Inflation
Jan Brůha, Director of Economic Research Division, Monetary Department, CNB
Labor-market data are useful indicators of the cyclical position of the economy. As individual time series may sometime send conflicting messages, a composite index that aggregates the information is useful. In this lecture, we present the composite labor market index used by the Czech National Bank (LUCI), including its estimation and formulation. We will overview the real world application of the index for quantifying demand-driven inflation pressures.
Presentation (pdf, 1.5 MB)
15.15 End of the Program