CNB forecast – Spring 2024
This forecast was published on 2 May 2024 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 26 April 2024. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Spring 2024 (to be bublished on 10 May 2024) and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 5.0 | 3.6 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 25.1 | 24.8 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2024 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | May 2024 | June 2024 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 |
| 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
Inflation will remain close to the 2% inflation target during the course of this year and stay there over the monetary policy horizon.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2024 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | May 2024 | June 2024 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 |
| 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
The economy will start to grow again this year. Growth in economic activity will accelerate further next year.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the baseline scenario of the forecast is a further decline in market interest rates.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
Following a slight initial weakening, the koruna will appreciate gradually again from mid-2024.
