CNB Workshop on Households’ Inflation Expectations
Measuring Households’ Inflation Expectations: Theory, Practice, Implications
Prague, 28 November 2024
Czech National Bank Congress Centre (The Commodity Exchange), Senovážné nám. 30, Prague 1
The workshop was organized by the Czech National Bank, Anglo-American University, and Charles University with the financial support of the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic as part of project No. TQ01000396, titled “Survey of Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation Expectations of Czech Households.”
Program
Thursday, 28 November 2024
All times are in Central European Time.
| 8:30 | Registration & Morning Coffee |
| 8:55 | Opening Remarks Jan Brůha, Director of Economic Research Division, Monetary Department, Czech National Bank |
| 9:00 | Five Facts About Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Four Different Groups of Agents (pdf, 6 MB) Tuva Marie Fastbø, Eleonora Granziera, Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli (Norges Bank), Lovisa Reiche (University of Oxford) and Michael Weber (University of Chicago Booth) |
| 9:30 | A Choice-Based Approach to the Measurement of Inflation Expectations (pdf, 2 MB) Olga Goldfayn-Frank (Deutsche Bundesbank), Pascal Kieren and Stefan Trautmann (Heidelberg University) |
| 10:00 | Households’ Subjective Expectations: Disagreement, Common Drivers and Reaction to Monetary Policy Banks’ Credit Losses and Lending Dynamics (pdf, 2 MB) Clodomiro Ferreira (Bank of Spain) and Stefano Pica (Bank of Italy) |
| 10:30 | Coffee break |
| 10:50 | Keynote Speech: Household Inflation Expectations – Some Recent Research Insights for Monetary Policy (pdf, 1.5 MB) Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank |
| 11:45 | Lunch |
| 13:00 | Keynote Speech: Inflation Expectations and Household Consumption (pdf 1.6 MB) Michal Marenčák, National Bank of Slovakia |
| 13:40 | Poster session 1 and coffee |
| Consumers’ Pessimism in Inflation Expectations: Does It Matter? (pdf, 1 MB) Evangelos Charalambakis (Bank of Greece) Understanding Inflation Expectations in the Czech Economy: Data, Drivers and Policy Implications. (pdf, 3 MB) František Brázdik, Tatiana Keseliová, Karel Musil, Radek Šnobl, Jan Šolc, Stanislav Tvrz, and Jan Žáček (Czech National Bank) Anchoring Households’ Inflation Expectations When Inflation Is High. (pdf, 3 MB) Giang Nghiem, Lena Dräger and Ami Dalloul (Leibniz University Hannover) The Impact of Respondent Characteristics on Inflation Expectations and Perceptions in the UK. (pdf, 107 kB) Kamil Kladívko (Örebro University, School of Business) Households’ Macroeconomic Beliefs: The Role of Education. (pdf, 6 MB) Eleonora Granziera (Norges Bank), Jessica Piccolo, Alessia Russo and Efrem Castelnuovo (University of Padova) Inflation Expectations and Labor Market Dynamics: Evidence from the US and South Africa. (pdf, 1 MB) Lovisa Reiche (University of Oxford) Consumer Inflation Expectations in Mexico: Preliminary Findings. (pdf, 1 MB) Carolina Rodrıguez-Zamora and Pablo Derbez Rodríguez (Bank of Mexico) Consumer Inflation Expectations and Local Price Changes. (pdf, 1 MB) Tomasz Łyziak (Narodowy Bank Polski), Michael Pedersen (Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Business School, Chile) and Ewa Stanisławska (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| 14:30 | Unexpecting the Expected in Forecasting Inflation: A Real-Time Analysis for the Euro Area (pdf, 3.4 MB) Nicolás Bonino-Gayoso and Mónica Correa-López (Banco de España) |
| 15:00 | The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Spending Johannes J. Fischer (Bundesbank), Christoph Herler and Philip Schnattinger (Bank of England) |
| 15:30 | Czech Households Inflation Expectations: Preliminary Results (pdf, 2.8 MB) Jaromír Baxa (Charles University), Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank), Nino Buliskeria (Charles University) and Jiří Schwarz (Anglo-American University, Prague) |
| 16:50 | Beyond the Headline: How Personal Exposure to Inflation Shapes the Financial Choices of Households (pdf, 731 kB) Merike Kukk (Bank of Estonia and Tallinn University of Technology), Jan Toczynski (Queen Mary University of London) and Christoph Basten (European Central Bank) |
| 17:20 | Framing Effects in Consumer Expectations Surveys (pdf, 2 MB) Lora Pavlova (ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research) |
| 17:50 | End of session |
| 18:30 | Dinner (by invitation) |
| 21:30 | End of event |
Photogallery
The program can be downloaded here: Program (pdf, 423 kB)
Organizing Committee
- Jan Babecký (Czech National Bank)
- Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank)
Scientific Committee
- Jan Babecký (Czech National Bank)
- Jan Brůha (Czech National Bank)
- Jiří Schwarz (Anglo-American University, Prague)
- Jaromír Baxa (Charles University)