Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications
Prague, 20–21 March 2025
The Czech National Bank and CERGE-EI are sponsoring the Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications in Macroeconomics. The conference brings together leading researchers in real-time economic analysis, and encompasses nowcasting, high-frequency data, surveys, macro econometrics, data revisions, and macroeconomic policy.
Keynote speaker
Athanasios Orphanides (MIT Sloan School of Management)
Program
Thursday, 20 March 2025
All times are in Central European Time.
| 9:00 | Improving Disaggregated Short-Term Food Inflation Forecasts with Webscraped Data (pdf, 3 MB), paper (external link) Robert Ferstl (Oesterreichische Nationalbank), Christian Beer, Bernhard Graf |
| 9:40 | Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data (pdf, 6.3 MB), paper (pdf, 4.5 MB) Davud Rostam-Afschar (University of Mannheim), Lukas Hack |
| 10:50 | Disentangling Local and Aggregate Income Effects on Consumption: Evidence from U.S. States (pdf, 1.1 MB) Boyuan Zhang (Amazon.com), Domenico Giannone, Shanshan Li |
| 11:30 | Decoding Equity Market Reactions to Macroeconomic News (pdf, 1.2 MB), paper (pdf, 1 MB) Dino Palazzo (Federal Reserve Board), Michele Modugno |
| 12:10 | The Financial Instability - Monetary Policy Nexus: Evidence from the FOMC Minutes (pdf, 7 MB), paper (pdf, 1 MB) Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University), Lars Krantzmann, Dimitrios Kanelis |
| 14:00 | Challenges for Monetary Policy and Its Communication (pdf, 700 kB) Athanasios Orphanides (MIT Sloan School of Management) |
| 15:10 | Regime-Switching Factor Models and Nowcasting with Big Data Omer Faruk Akbal (International Monetary Fund) Risks of Inflation Outlook: The Czech Case (pdf, 745 kB) Michal Franta (Czech National Bank), Jan Vlček New Evidence on Daily Consumption and Income Dynamics from a Consumer Payment Diary (pdf, 678 kB), paper (external link) Shaun Gilyard (Coastal Carolina University), Scott Schuh Does the Exposure to the Business Cycle Improve Consumer Perceptions for Forecasting? Microdata Evidence from Chile (pdf, 762 kB), paper (pdf, 642 kB) Carlos Medel (Central Bank of Chile and Pontifical Catholic University of Chile), Fernando Faure Forecasting Inflation in the US and in the Euro Area (pdf, 286 kB) Joan Paredes (European Central Bank), Marta Banbura, Michele Lenza A Multi-Factor GDP Nowcast Model for India (pdf, 473 kB), paper (pdf, 1 MB) Kaustubh (Reserve Bank of India), Abhishek Ranjan Research in Commotion: Measuring AI Research and Development through Conference Call Transcripts, paper (external link) Paul Soto (Federal Reserve Board) Is Big Data A Big Help? Evidence from Nowcasting Food Inflation during Covid-19 And Wartime Paweł Macias (Narodowy Bank Polski), Karol Szafranek, Damian Stelmasiak, Aneta Błażejowska |
| 16:30 | Learning, Heuristics and Structural Change: How do Different Types of Consumer Learn about Inflation? (pdf, 1.7 MB), paper (pdf, 1.6 MB) Kevin Lee (University of Nottingham), Kalvinder Shields and Viet Nguyen |
| 17:10 | Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models Sergey Slobodyan (CERGE-EI), Yuliya Rychalovska and Raf Wouters |
Friday, 21 March 2025
All times are in Central European Time.
| 9:00 | Improving Forecasts in Real Time (pdf, 3.7 MB), paper (pdf, 2.3 MB) Dean Croushore (University of Richmond) |
| 9:40 | Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data (pdf, 790 kB), paper (pdf, 1.7 MB) Stephen Snudden (Wilfrid Laurier University), Martin McCarthy |
| 10:50 | Sign Accuracy, Mean-Square Error and the Rate of Zero Crossings: a Generalized Forecast Approach Marc Wildi (Zurich University of Applied Sciences) |
| 11:30 | Dual Interpretation of Machine Learning Forecasts (pdf, 4.5 MB), paper (pdf, 4.3 MB) Karin Klieber (Oesterreichische Nationalbank), Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Maximilian Göbel |
| 13:10 | Business Cycle Dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model Catherine Doz (PSE and Univ. Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne), Laurent Ferrara, Pierre-Alain Pionnier |
| 13:50 | Live GDP Nowcasting (pdf, 574 kB) Heiner Mikosch (ETH Zurich) Philipp Kronenberg, Stefan Neuwirth |
The program can be downloaded here: Program (pdf, 382 kB)
Scientific Committee
- Dean Croushore (University of Richmond)
- Domenico Giannone (University of Washington and International Monetary Fund)
- Barbara Rossi (ICREA, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona School of Economics, and CREI)
- Tara Sinclair (George Washington University)
- Sergey Slobodyan (CERGE-EI)
- Shaun Vahey (University of Warwick and CAMA, ANU)
- Simon van Norden (HEC Montréal, CIRANO and CIREQ)
Local organizers
- Volha Audzei (Czech National Bank)
- Sergey Slobodyan (CERGE-EI)
