CNB forecast – Autumn 2024
This forecast was published on 7 November 2024 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 31 October 2024. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Autumn 2024 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 4.9 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 25.1 | 25.4 | 25.5 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2024 Q4 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | November 2024 | December 2024 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 |
| 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% |
Inflation will be close to the upper boundary of the tolerance band around the target at the turn of the year and will then start to decline gradually towards the 2% target.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2024 Q4 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | November 2024 | December 2024 | 2025 Q4 | 2026 Q1 |
| 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
Growth in domestic economic activity will accelerate.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the forecast is a continued decline in short-term market interest rates initially, followed by broadly stable rates from mid-2025 onwards.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
The koruna will depreciate very slightly over the outlook horizon.
