CNB forecast – Autumn 2021
Headline inflation
at the monetary policy horizon
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual headline inflation | 2022, Q4 | 4.1% |
| 2023, Q1 | 2.3% |
Note: The confidence intervals of the headline inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.
in the period October 2021 – December 2021
| Indicator | 10/21 | 11/21 | 12/21 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual headline inflation | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation
at the monetary policy horizon
| Indicator | Horizon | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation | 2022, Q4 | 3.2% |
| 2023, Q1 | 2.1% |
Note: The confidence intervals of the monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts and are symmetric. They are widening only for the first five quarters and then stay constant. This is consistent with both the past predictive power and the stabilising role of monetary policy.
in the period October 2021 – December 2021
| Indicator | 10/21 | 11/21 | 12/21 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual monetary policy-relevant inflation | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% |
Gross domestic product
| Indicator | Year | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Annual growth of real GDP | 2021 | 1.9% |
| 2022 | 3.5% | |
| 2023 | 3.8% |
Note: The confidence intervals of the GDP growth forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts. They are symmetric and linearly widening.
Interest rates (3M PRIBOR)
| Indicator | Year | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR | 2021 | 1.2% |
| 2022 | 3.3% | |
| 2023 | 2.8% |
Note: The confidence intervals of the 3M PRIBOR forecast reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric, linearly widening and limited below by the zero lower bound.
Exchange rate
| Indicator | Year | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange rate CZK/EUR | 2021 | 25.6 |
| 2022 | 24.2 | |
| 2023 | 23.9 |
Note: The confidence intervals of the CZK/EUR exchange rate reflect the predictive power of past forecasts (with the exception of the exchange rate commitment period). They are symmetric and linearly widening.
A detailed description of the current CNB forecast is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Autumn 2021 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts (pdf, 11 MB).
