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Czech economic growth in line with the CNB forecast in 2024 Q3
The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2024 Q3
According to the CZSO’s estimate released today, real gross domestic product adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar effects went up by 1.3% year on year in 2024 Q3. This was in line with the CNB’s autumn forecast. Compared with the previous quarter, economic activity increased by 0.4%. These data confirm the continuing recovery in Czech economic growth.
As regards the GDP expenditure structure, year-on-year growth in household consumption and general government consumption was only marginally above the CNB forecast. By contrast, investment in fixed capital was significantly lower than expected, even declining in year-on-year terms. However, total investment activity fell less markedly than forecasted, due to a smaller decrease in inventories. Growth in exports and imports of goods and services was higher than predicted, but the resulting contribution of net exports to GDP growth was weaker than expected.
prices of 2020 (chain-linked), seasonally adjusted
The CNB’s autumn forecast expects economic activity to increase by 1.0% this year. Inflation close to the CNB’s 2% inflation target amid steady nominal wage growth fosters growth in households’ purchasing power, leading to a recovery in their consumption expenditure. By contrast, Germany’s persisting economic problems hold back growth in exports and private investment. The transition to the new programming period for EU funds is also reflected in slowing fixed investment. Economic activity is also affected this year by the consolidation package, which causes fiscal policy to be restrictive. The expected upturn in domestic economic growth to 2.4% in 2025 will be based on domestic demand, above all households’ consumption expenditure and gross capital formation, which will reflect renewed creation of company inventories. External demand will also pick up gradually as Germany’s economic downturn fades.
Petr Král, Executive Director, Monetary Department