28. 2. 2025

GDP growth exceeds estimates at the close of last year

The CNB comments on the GDP figures for 2024 Q4

The growth of the Czech economy at the close of last year was faster than expected. It exceeded both the CZSO’s flash estimate and the CNB’s forecast. Looking at the structure of the growth, the developments were mixed. Household consumption is driving the economy, while weak external demand is conversely holding it back. 

The growth in household consumption reflects higher real income amid low inflation. We still see room for this trend to continue, as households were still consuming 3% less than before the pandemic in real terms at the end of last year. The problems of the German economy are another factor affecting GDP. They are leading to worse results for exports (now driven solely by non-euro area countries) and for fixed investment. 

The new data on the economy as a whole point in a slightly inflationary direction. Stronger consumer demand, especially in services, may contribute to the persistence of inflation pressures in this sector. By contrast, weaker investment activity suggests muted productivity growth going forward. This confirms that the CNB’s cautious approach to easing monetary policy is justified.

Jakub Matějů, Deputy Executive Director in charge of the Monetary Department

2024 Q4 year-on-year in %
actual figure MPR Winter 2025
Gross domestic product 1.8 1.4
Household consumption 3.2 1.9
General government consumption 3.2 3.1
Gross fixed capital formation -2.4 -0.2
Change in inventories (in p. p.) 1.5 1.3
Exports of goods and services 1.3 3.4
Imports of goods and services 3.1 5.7
Net exports (in p. p.) -1.2 -1.2

prices of 2020 (chain-linked), seasonally adjusted