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Inflation comes in above the CNB forecast and well above the upper boundary of the tolerance band in March 2022
The CNB comments on the March 2022 inflation figures
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 12.7% year on year in March 2022. Inflation thus increased further, significantly exceeding the upper boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB’s target. Consumer prices adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes rose by 12.4% year on year in March.
The annual increase in consumer prices in March was almost three percentage points higher than expected in the CNB’s winter forecast. This deviation was due significantly to all inflation components except taxes. A massive increase in fuel prices had the largest effect. Growth in food prices, administered prices and core inflation was also well above the forecast.
The March data reflected additional price shocks in connection with the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, both in commodity prices and goods supplies. In an environment of persisting very strong and broad-based inflation pressures from the domestic and foreign economies, these effects continue to foster a pick-up in inflation. The exceptionally high increase in fuel prices in March was due to a marked rise in oil prices as a result of the outbreak of war in Ukraine and a temporary weakening of the koruna for the same reason. The war is also reflected in soaring food prices, as Ukraine is one of the world’s leading wheat exporters. Core inflation also accelerated further. This reflects a significant rise in firms’ personnel and material costs in the previous period, including a sizeable increase in energy prices, which is quickly passing through into prices amid continued strong demand in the Czech economy. Within core inflation, the contribution of the cost of owner-occupied housing in the form of imputed rent is also growing further.
The CNB’s winter forecast expected inflation to peak at around 10% in the first half of this year and return close to the 2% target over the monetary policy horizon, i.e. in the first half of 2023. However, the observed growth in commodity prices and the war in Ukraine are having a markedly inflationary effect on domestic price developments, especially in the short term.
Petr Král, Executive Director, Monetary Department