13. 7. 2021

Inflation comes in marginally above the forecast in June 2021

The CNB comments on the June 2021 inflation figures

According to figures released today, the price level increased by 2.8% year on year in June 2021. Inflation was thus slightly lower than in May and was in the upper half of the tolerance band around the CNB’s target. Consumer prices adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes rose by 2.6% year on year in June.

The June annual consumer price inflation figure was 0.1 percentage point higher than the CNB’s current forecast. Core inflation was higher than expected, driven by faster growth in prices of goods and services. Year-on-year growth in fuel prices, which was above the forecast due to the unexpectedly high price of oil, acted in the same direction. A further surprising slowdown in food price inflation, which remains volatile, had the opposite effect. The impact of changes to indirect taxes was slightly below the forecast. The very small year-on-year decline in administered prices was broadly in line with the forecast.

The June inflation figures are in line with the overall message of the CNB’s current forecast. The forecast expects a temporary increase in annual consumer price inflation to the upper boundary of the tolerance band, owing mainly to a marked year-on-year rise in fuel prices. Inflation will later also be supported by buoyant growth in food prices, and by renewed growth in administered prices at the end of this year. Core inflation will fall only gradually from its current elevated levels. Its decline will be slowed by significant domestic demand pressures and brisk growth in industrial prices abroad. The overall inflation pressures will only start to ease in the autumn as the current elevated growth of import prices subsides. Conversely, domestic price pressures will rise slightly owing to the reopening of the domestic economy and a gradual pick-up in wage growth. Inflation will return close to the CNB’s 2% target next year, aided by the start of growth in monetary policy interest rates from June 2021 onwards.

Petr Král, Executive Director, Monetary Department

Name	Domain	Expiration	Description
cc_cookie	cnb.cz	1 year	Used to establish a session with the cookie bar after our website is loaded for the first time, including the management of your settings regarding consent to the use of cookies on our website.
YSC	youtube.com	Valid during the session, i.e. during the time you are viewing our website.	Used to remember your access and integrate your YouTube actions.
PREF	youtube.com	2 years	Used by YouTube for storing your preferences and other unspecified purposes.
JSESSIONID	cnb.cz	Valid during the session, i.e. during the time you are viewing our website.	We use it to maintain an anonymous user session on the part of the server.

Name	Domain	Expiration	Description
_ga	cnb.cz	2 years	Helps us understand how you use our website. Used to distinguish between individual users.
_gat	cnb.cz	1 minute	Helps us understand how you use our website. Used to limit the speed and frequency of requests.
_gid	cnb.cz	24 hours	Helps us understand how you use our website. Used to distinguish between individual users.
_utma	google.com	2 years	Helps us understand how you use our website. Used to distinguish between users and sessions. The cookie file is created upon the launch of a javascript library if no _utma cookie files currently exist. The cookie file is updated every time data are sent to Google Analytics.

Name	Domain	Expiration	Description
1P_JAR	google.com	1 month	Sets a unique ID for storing your preferences and other information such as website statistics and tracking conversion rates.
OGPC	google.com	1 month	Used to manage your preferences in Google. The cookie file saves your preferences and user information every time you visit a website containing Google Maps.
NID	google.com	6 months	Used to manage your preferences in Google. The cookie file contains a unique ID used by Google to remember your settings and other information, e.g. your preferred language and how many search results per page you want to view.
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	youtube.com	6 months	Used to manage your preferences on YouTube. The cookie file contains a unique ID used by YouTube to remember your settings and other information, e.g. your preferred language and how many search results per page you want to view. In addition, it helps detect and remove problems with the service.
CONSENT	youtube.com	20 years	Used by YouTube to store your consent to the use of third-party content.
cc_youtube	cnb.cz	1 year	Used to manage your preferences regarding consent to the use of cookies related to viewing YouTube video content on our website.