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Inflation continued to decline in line with the forecast in December 2023
The CNB comments on the December 2023 inflation figures
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 6.9% year on year in December 2023. Annual inflation fell by 0.4 percentage point compared to the previous month. The year-on-year increase in consumer prices in December was still affected by the statistical effect of the lower comparison base in 2022 Q4. A sharp decline in prices of electricity for households was recorded in October 2022 owing to the statistical capture of the energy savings tariff and the waiver of the renewable sources fee. Adjusted for the effect of the energy savings tariff, inflation would have been 4.2% in December (4.7% in November). The average inflation rate in 2023 was 10.7%.
Annual inflation was 0.1 percentage point lower in December than the CNB’s autumn forecast. Contrary to the forecast, there was a more substantial rise in administered prices. By contrast, food, beverages and tobacco acted in the opposite direction, going up less year on year. They even became noticeably cheaper month on month from November to December. The significant year-on-year and month-on-month decrease in fuel prices in December also came as a surprise. Core inflation was exactly in line with the forecast.
Core inflation slowed further in December. It has been falling gradually for more than a year now, reflecting a fading of growth in prices of foreign inputs and a cooling of domestic demand. The latter is acting against a further increase in the profit margins of producers, retailers and service providers. Growth in goods prices slowed in particular, while growth in services prices moderated to a lesser extent. Within services, imputed rent accelerated slightly.
Annual food price inflation slowed significantly further in December. This was due to declining global agricultural commodity prices and domestic agricultural producer prices, as well as subdued consumer demand. Fuel prices recorded a decrease, reflecting a decline in oil prices on world markets.
The observed price developments bear out the expectations of the autumn forecast. Following a temporary increase in October, annual inflation slowed in the rest of the year. As early as in in January 2024, annual inflation will decline sharply close to the upper boundary of the tolerance band around the 2% target.
The strength and broad nature of the disinflationary trend is illustrated by subdued developments in the price level in recent months. The disinflationary trend is evident mainly (but not solely) in the key segment of consumer prices – the price core, where price growth is now at low single-digit levels in annual terms. The current forecast meanwhile assumes an increase in the administered component of energy prices for households (and firms) in January linked with the abolition of government energy distribution subsidies and the reintroduction of fees for renewable sources. The size of the expected increase is broadly in line with the pricing decision published by the Energy Regulatory Office.
Petr Král, Executive Director, Monetary Department