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Inflation decreases significantly further and is slightly below the forecast in June 2023
The CNB comments on the June 2023 inflation figures
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 9.7% year on year in June 2023. Inflation thus slowed significantly further, but remained well above the upper boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB’s target. Consumer prices adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes rose by 9.5% year on year in June.
Inflation was 0.4 percentage point lower in June than the spring CNB forecast. This was due mainly to weaker-than-expected core inflation, with a deeper decline in fuel prices also contributing to a lesser extent. Somewhat faster growth in administered prices affected the deviation from the forecast in the opposite direction.
Core inflation eased further in June. It has been falling for a number of months, reflecting a fading of growth in prices of foreign inputs and a cooling of domestic demand. This is causing growth in the profit margins of producers, retailers and service providers to halt. Growth in prices of both goods and services slowed. The decline in services price inflation is being driven mainly by a continued rapid decrease in the contribution of imputed rent. This reflects a slowdown in construction price inflation and stabilisation of new residential property prices due to higher interest rates.
Annual food price inflation is also slowing, due mainly to declining global agricultural commodity prices and domestic agricultural producer prices, as well as weak consumer demand. This is illustrated by a continuing decline in real retail sales for food. Annual administered price inflation remains strong but continued to moderate in June as well. Fuel prices continue to decline sharply year on year as a result of last year’s high prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The observed price developments bear out the expectations of the spring forecast that inflation will continue to fall sharply during spring and summer. Year-on-year price growth will also slow quickly in the months ahead. Inflation will decline to the CNB’s 2% target over the monetary policy horizon, i.e. in 2024 Q2 and Q3.
Petr Král, Executive Director, Monetary Department