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Inflation increases to 3% in December 2024
The CNB comments on the December 2024 inflation figures
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 3% year on year in December 2024. Annual consumer price inflation rose by 0.2 pp compared to the previous month and is thus at the upper boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB’s 2% target. Annual growth in December was affected by the statistical effect of the low comparison base in December 2023. This effect will dissipate in the first months of this year.
Inflation was 0.3 pp lower in December than the CNB’s autumn forecast. Food price inflation was weaker in particular. Core inflation was also somewhat lower than forecasted. By contrast, growth in administered prices was stronger. Fuel prices were broadly in line with the forecast.
Within core inflation, we can see higher price growth mainly in services. It is relatively broad-based and concerns accommodation, food services, cultural services, etc. This reflects the continued elevated wage growth. Conversely, the still subdued domestic demand, affected by tight CNB monetary policy, is dampening core inflation. This is fostering a gradual decrease in the profit mark-ups of producers, retailers and service providers over their costs. Goods prices within core inflation are flat year on year. The ongoing recovery in the property market is being reflected in accelerating growth in imputed rent.
In December, annual inflation was driven significantly by growth in food prices, which accelerated due to the low comparison base in December 2023, when retailers incorporated the decrease in VAT on food into prices in advance. Rising prices of electricity, water supply and sewerage charges continued to foster inflation. By contrast, growth in the price level was dampened by a continued fall in fuel prices.
The price level decreased by 0.3% in December compared to the previous month. According to the CNB’s autumn forecast, inflation will slow this year, gradually returning to the central bank’s 2% target, as administered price inflation will slow markedly from January onwards. Fuel prices will decline year on year. Core inflation will remain slightly above 2% in the quarters ahead. Its expected developments will reflect not only fading cost pressures, but also subdued demand in the Czech economy.
Jakub Matějů, Deputy Executive Director in charge of the Monetary Department