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Inflation remains at 2.7% in March
The CNB comments on the March 2025 inflation figures
Inflation was 2.7% in March, the same as in February. However, the stability of inflation conceals opposite movements in its components – food price inflation accelerated further, whereas the decrease in fuel prices deepened. At the same time, inflation is close to the CNB’s forecast, which expected it to reach 2.6% in March.
Core inflation remains at 2.5% (unchanged from January and February). Within core inflation, prices of goods rose by 0.1% and prices of services by 4.2%. Growth in the cost of owner-occupied housing has been increasing for several months now, driven by demand for residential property. This is captured by imputed rent, which rose by 3.6%, driving up both core and headline inflation. Core inflation also continues to be fostered by elevated year-on-year growth in market rent and prices of accommodation and food services. Inertia in services inflation, including imputed rent, continues to pose a risk to the stabilisation of inflation close to the target and confirms that the cautious approach to easing monetary policy is appropriate.
What can we expect in the coming months in the context of heightened international tensions? In April, annual inflation will fall temporarily due to base effects (last year’s above-average price growth, which is unlikely to be repeated this year). It is still premature to look for any impact of the trade wars on inflation. In the near term, the observed drop in oil and other commodity prices could be reflected in the prices of fuel and other categories. Tariffs alone may have an inflationary effect, but so far only on a very limited category of goods on which the EU imposes retaliatory tariffs against the USA. However, this may lead to a severing of trade links and an increase in global inflation pressures due to a deterioration in the efficiency of global supply chains. It is difficult to assess at this point whether this inflationary effect will outweigh the anti-inflationary effect of weakened demand and increased uncertainty. The CNB is monitoring the situation and is ready to react appropriately.
Jakub Matějů, Acting Executive Director of the Monetary Department