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Inflation sees a further significant decline and comes in slightly below the forecast in May 2023
The CNB comments on the May 2023 inflation figures
According to figures released today, the price level increased by 11.1% year on year in May 2023. Inflation thus slowed markedly further but remained well above the upper boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB’s target. Consumer prices adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes also rose by 11.1% year on year in May.
The May inflation figure was 0.5 percentage point lower than expected in the CNB’s spring forecast. This was due mainly to weaker-than-expected core inflation and, to a lesser extent, slower annual food price inflation and a deeper decline in fuel prices. Somewhat faster growth in administered prices affected the deviation from the forecast in the opposite direction.
Core inflation eased further in May, reaching single figures. It has been falling for a number of months, reflecting a fading of foreign producer price inflation and a cooling of domestic demand. The latter is causing a gradual correction of the until recently increasing profit margins of producers, retailers and service providers. Growth in prices of both goods and services slowed. The decrease in growth in services prices is driven mainly by a continued rapid decline in the contribution of imputed rent, reflecting a slowdown in construction prices and stabilisation of new residential property prices due to higher interest rates.
Year-on-year growth in food prices is also slowing, owing chiefly to falling global agricultural commodity prices and domestic agricultural producer prices amid a continuing deep decline in real retail sales of food. Administered price inflation remains strong but continued to moderate slightly in May, among other things in the context of a cut in energy prices by some distributors to below the price cap. Fuel prices continue to decline sharply year on year. Besides oil market developments and a stronger koruna, this was related above all to last year’s high comparison base due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The observed price developments bear out the expectations of the spring forecast that inflation will continue to decline quickly during spring and summer. Year-on-year price growth will also slow quickly in the months ahead. Annual consumer price inflation will fall to single digits in the summer months. It will decline to the CNB’s 2% target over the monetary policy horizon, i.e. in 2024 Q2 and Q3.
Petr Král, Executive Director, Monetary Department